2023 China Textile and Clothing Manufacturing Forecast
Recently, the State Council of the Chinese State Council has released the "new ten" that further optimizes the prevention and control of the epidemic. The clothing retail sector is expected to benefit and recovery. With the increase in fitness demand and the orderly recovery of sports events, it is expected that the growth rate of the sportswear sector industry is expected to return to before the epidemic. Cagr 10%;
The US inflation data performance in October is better than expected. The expected adjustment of interest rate hikes is expected to usher in valuation repair. After the Japanese-American sports clothing industry, the industry demand in the first quarter after the epidemic prevention and control policy was relaxed, and the industry demand in the first quarter recovered, and the growth rate of the subsequent quarters continued to higher than the normal growth rate before the epidemic.
Since 22Q2, China's epidemic has affected domestic sales, overseas high inflation, Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and global sports brands such as Nike and Adidas have adjusted orders due to inventory conditions, affecting overseas demand. In terms of domestic sales, the retail sales of Q3 Chinese textile and clothing society are heated from Q2 month-on-month. The growth rates of July-October were+0.8%, 5.1%,-0.5%, and -7.5%. From October to November 2022, the exports of yarn and product exports were -9.1%and -14.9%year-on-year, and the exports of clothing and accessories were -16.9%and -14.9%year-on-year. ,+3.7%, the export of clothing products shows downward expectations.
Demand downlinks lead to pressure on the sales and profitability of the clothing manufacturing industry. Since March 2022, the Chinese clothing manufacturing industry has experienced the East China epidemic, Xinjiang cotton ban, overseas brand clothing destocking, etc., and the demand for domestic and foreign sales has declined. The high price of the price rapidly led to increasing product price reduction and industry competition, which further exacerbated the profit level of especially upstream yarn suppliers. The upstream and upstream companies in clothing faced the dual pressure of sales and profitability, and the industry operating rate continued to decline.
Under the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the consumption demand of Chinese clothing terminals will gradually be repaired, which is expected to drive the confidence and prosperity of the middle and upstream manufacturing industry. On the one hand, from November 2022, with the optimization of the prevention and control measures of the epidemic, the confidence of the Chinese clothing manufacturing industry is expected to bottom out. According to the results of the prosperity monitoring of the China Textile Federation Circulation Branch, in November 2022, the national textile and clothing professional market manager prosperity The index was 47.80, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from October 48.66, which was a decrease of 1.08 percentage points from October.
Futures in the cotton spinning industry to bottom out. Since November, the main futures price price of Zhengmian has picked up from the 13,000 yuan/ton price to 13,800 yuan/ton, which has increased by 6%in the past month. At the same time One month increased by 9%; international cotton price COTLOOK: A index ranged from 89.2 cents/pound to 98.9 cents/pounds, in the past month, an increase of 11%. Although China's spot cotton prices have declined slightly, the overall trend is stable. It is expected that as the confidence and prosperity of the spinning industry have risen, consumer demand is transmitted to the middle and upstream, and the demand for yarn replenishment has increased. The pressure of high -priced inventory will be gradually released, and the dual repair of volume and price and profitability will be achieved.
Since August 2022, the price of nylon has stabilized, and the nylon 66 has declined. It is optimistic about the release of downstream diversified demand to release the price of nylon. Since the beginning of the year, the price of PA6 slices and long silk declined -18%and-12%month-on-month, mainly due to the needs of China's epidemic affected high-end clothing and giving consumer. Xiangji Erxuan put into production, and the PA66 localization process accelerated. It is expected that with the optimization of epidemic control and control, the demand for high -performance clothing such as outdoor jackets and down jackets in the field of PA66 is expected to recover. The price of PA66 is expected to recover.
Since October, Australian wool prices have stabilized 60 cents/kg, which is optimistic about the relative prosperity of China's foreign warmth and outdoor demand. Since October, Australian wool prices have risen steadily, ranging from 794 cents/kg to 857 cents/kg, and 8%upward. It is expected that with the relatively prosperous demand for conventional wool products such as foreign warmth and outdoor outdoor in winter, it will drive the bottom of the wool price to recover. Optimistic about the gradual recovery of subsequent China needs.
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